Climate bets: Bashkirtsev & Mashnich vs Annan
In 2004, contrarian meteorologist Richard Lindzen said he was willing to bet that the Earth's climate would cool over the next 20 years. The following year climate modeller James Annan, who at the time was at the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, approached Lindzen to take him up on the offer. However, according to Nature in 2005:
"Annan says that Lindzen wanted odds of 50-to-1 against falling temperatures: this meant that Annan would pay out $10,000 if temperatures dropped, but receive only $200 if they rose."
James Annan tried and failed to agree terms with seven other potential betting counterparts before Galina Mashnich and Vladimir Bashkirtsev of the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics in Irkutsk rose to the challenge.
The basis of the bet was very straightforward: 2012-17 compared with 1998-2003, using the global surface temperature dataset kept by National Centers for Environmental Information at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. If 2012-17 turned out warmer, Annan would win. If cooler, Mashnich and Bashkirtsev would win.
The stakes: a cool $10,000. The result: Annan won by miles.
Like other global temperature datasets, NOAA-NCEI uses the average of a run of years as the basis for comparing individual years before and after; in its case the period used is 1971-2000. Here's how the base years of the Annan vs Mashnich and Bashkirtsev bet compared to the 1971-2000 average (in degrees centigrade):
...which averages out to +0.30.
At the business end of the bet, here's 2012-17, again compared with the 1971-2000 average:
...which averages out to +0.55, i.e. 0.25 degrees warmer than the base years of the bet. Here's how that looks when plotted:
James Annan wrote today about what he's done with the winnings. So far, nothing, because Mashnich and Bashkirtsev haven't paid up.
As for Richard Lindzen, it's probably just as well for him that he didn't put his money whether his mouth was. Of the 13 years since 2004, eleven have been warmer and only two (2008 and 2011) have been cooler. And 2018 is on track to be the 4th warmest in the modern temperature record. A very big and completely unexpected downturn in temperature during 2019-24 will have to happen for him not to be completely wrong as well.
"Annan says that Lindzen wanted odds of 50-to-1 against falling temperatures: this meant that Annan would pay out $10,000 if temperatures dropped, but receive only $200 if they rose."
James Annan tried and failed to agree terms with seven other potential betting counterparts before Galina Mashnich and Vladimir Bashkirtsev of the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics in Irkutsk rose to the challenge.
The basis of the bet was very straightforward: 2012-17 compared with 1998-2003, using the global surface temperature dataset kept by National Centers for Environmental Information at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. If 2012-17 turned out warmer, Annan would win. If cooler, Mashnich and Bashkirtsev would win.
The stakes: a cool $10,000. The result: Annan won by miles.
Like other global temperature datasets, NOAA-NCEI uses the average of a run of years as the basis for comparing individual years before and after; in its case the period used is 1971-2000. Here's how the base years of the Annan vs Mashnich and Bashkirtsev bet compared to the 1971-2000 average (in degrees centigrade):
| 1998 | +0.39 |
| 1999 | +0.20 |
| 2000 | +0.18 |
| 2001 | +0.30 |
| 2002 | +0.36 |
| 2003 | +0.37 |
...which averages out to +0.30.
At the business end of the bet, here's 2012-17, again compared with the 1971-2000 average:
| 2012 | +0.38 |
| 2013 | +0.42 |
| 2014 | +0.50 |
| 2015 | +0.66 |
| 2016 | +0.70 |
| 2017 | +0.62 |
...which averages out to +0.55, i.e. 0.25 degrees warmer than the base years of the bet. Here's how that looks when plotted:
James Annan wrote today about what he's done with the winnings. So far, nothing, because Mashnich and Bashkirtsev haven't paid up.
As for Richard Lindzen, it's probably just as well for him that he didn't put his money whether his mouth was. Of the 13 years since 2004, eleven have been warmer and only two (2008 and 2011) have been cooler. And 2018 is on track to be the 4th warmest in the modern temperature record. A very big and completely unexpected downturn in temperature during 2019-24 will have to happen for him not to be completely wrong as well.
Footnote: Crandles contacted me to tell me about the bet he agreed on the same terms as this one with 'Snowhope' via UKWeatherWorld. It was documented here at the time: http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/2005/08/bet-number-2.html
ReplyDeleteThe actual exchange on UKWeatherWorld isn't there any more as far as I can see. And unfortunately, Snowhope seems to have vanished into the ether, so Crandles may have some difficulty gathering his winnings. A bit of a theme emerging here....