Climate bets: Evans vs Schmidt

Dramatis personae

Coolist: David Evans, mathematician and engineer. 

His wikipedia page is here, and there's a fairly lengthy page at desmogblog. The strapline of one of his websites demonstrates his concerted Coolism:
Natural influences mostly explain recent global warming. The 2020s will be cooler than the 1980s. 

Warmist: Brian Schmidt, environmental lawyer. 

He used to blog here, but nowadays mainly blogs at Rabbett Run

The bet

This one, established in 2007, is a bit more complex than most as it has three time periods and two odds for each period. As Schmidt explained at the time:

We have three bet periods -10, 15, and 20 years - and two bets for each period - an even-odds bet and a 2:1 bet in David's favor. The even-odds bet centers around a temperature increase rate of 0.15C/decade with a 0.02 void margin on either side (bet voids if temps increase between .13 and .17C/decade). The 2:1 bet centers on 0.1C/decade with a .01 void margin. Even-odds bets are for $1,000 each, and t…

Climate bets: Bashkirtsev & Mashnich vs Annan

In 2004, contrarian meteorologist Richard Lindzen said he was willing to bet that the Earth's climate would cool over the next 20 years.  The following year climate modeller James Annan, who at the time was at the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, approached Lindzen to take him up on the offer. However, according to Nature in 2005:

"Annan says that Lindzen wanted odds of 50-to-1 against falling temperatures: this meant that Annan would pay out $10,000 if temperatures dropped, but receive only $200 if they rose."

James Annan tried and failed to agree terms with seven other potential betting counterparts before Galina Mashnich and Vladimir Bashkirtsev of the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics in Irkutsk rose to the challenge.

The basis of the bet was very straightforward: 2012-17 compared with 1998-2003, using the global surface temperaturedataset kept byNational Centers for Environmental Information at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administr…

Climate bet scorecard

Between 2005-2011, several public bets were made about climate change, specifically about the rate of global warming.

Typically, on one side is someone who broadly agrees with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change i.e. that global warming is real, caused by human activity (e.g. fossil fuel burning) and that things will get worse if we carry on as we are. 

On the other side is what we might politely call a contrarian, who broadly disagrees with the IPCC. Typically, their view is that the world is warming less than the IPCC view, or not at all, or is about to start cooling.

Just for fun,  I've produced a scoreboard of recorded climate bets between 'warmists' and 'coolists' (for want of some better names). It shows all the bets I can find where terms were agreed by both parties and made public - in chronological order of when the bet was agreed.

The warmists are clearly winning:


Coolists Warmists
Complete 1 6
Underway 0 3

Bet made in